The “Flood” period begins in Cyprus: What message did the TRNC elections send to Türkiye and the world?
Opposition leader Tufan Erhürman won the presidential elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). With Erhürman's victory, voters in Northern Cyprus sent a message to both the government and Türkiye on many issues: Don't interfere in our internal affairs, don't interfere with our way of life, we don't want a two-state solution, and much more. So, what did the TRNC elections show us? We asked experts on the subject.
In the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the people went to the polls to elect a new leader to govern them for 5 years, and Tufan Erhürman, the leader of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), emerged victorious.
The TRNC Supreme Election Council announced that voter turnout was 64.87 percent. According to official results, Erhürman received 62.76 percent of the vote, while Ersin Tatar received 35.81 percent.
So, what did the TRNC elections show us? If we're going to learn anything, what lessons should we learn?
The initial result was undoubtedly for the People's Alliance. The people sent a message to Türkiye: "Don't interfere in our internal affairs."
Turkey's role in the TRNC elections has always been notable. In the 2020 presidential election, which Ersin Tatar won, Mustafa Akıncı claimed that he and his family were threatened by the National Intelligence Organization (MİT) during the election process and that he was asked to withdraw his candidacy.
Tatar received strong support from Turkey during this election campaign. A delegation led by AK Party Deputy Chairman Efkan Ala held meetings in Nicosia with figures such as former Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu, MHP Deputy Chairman Mevlüt Karakaya, BBP leader Mustafa Destici, and Zafer Party Chairman Ümit Özdağ.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ersin Tatar.
Representatives of the AK Party, MHP, and BBP described Tatar's "two-state solution" thesis as a "national cause," while the New Welfare and Felicity Party (YHP) issued a message of support. The campaign also saw participation from the cultural and media worlds; artists Yavuz Bingöl and Elif Buse Doğan performed at rallies, while former footballer Mesut Özil traveled to the TRNC to support Tatar.
Speaking to Medyascope, Kıbrıs Postası News Director Mustafa Baflı explained that many people he spoke with and interviewed before the election predicted Erhürman would win, but he hadn't expected the margin to be this wide. According to Baflı, the reasons for the wide gap are "the rift between the UBP and Tatar, citizen dissatisfaction with the government's actions, and the nepotism scandals unfolding on the island."
Speaking about the intervention of the ruling party in Türkiye in the island, Baflı recalled the words of Public Works and Transportation Minister Erhan Arıklı in an interview with Genç TV: "It would backfire if the alliance partners, who have not set foot on the island until now, come and ask for votes for Tatar."
Baflı, pointing out that the question of “Who invited those who came?” remains unanswered, said, “ Winning with over 60 percent of the vote amidst manipulations, confusion and lies is a big deal .”
Nilgün Arısan-Eralp, Director of the EU Studies Center at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), also pointed out that high inflation, inefficiency in the public sector, and youth unemployment are factors influencing voter preferences, and commented, “The TRNC’s association with corruption, money laundering, mafia, gambling, and human and drug trafficking has seriously damaged the honor of Turkish Cypriots.”
Recalling that in recent years, there have been interventions in the living conditions of Turkish Cypriots, similar to those in Turkey, Arısan-Eralp commented on the election results as follows:
The Turkish Cypriot people, in their own words, demanded a change that would "reclaim Turkish Cypriot agency and reclaim their representation." They declared that they would "reclaim their will and dignity" after suffering over 60 years of hardship. The election results expressed hope that Erhürman would fulfill the public's expectations for the closure of casinos and brothels, an end to interference in lifestyles, and the liquidation of illegal groups.
The election results came as a shock to the ruling National Unity Party (UBP). The possibility of an early election, which has been rumored for months, will now be voiced more forcefully.
Mustafa Baflı stated that allegations of internal party showdowns and tensions with Ersin Tatar have surfaced following the election results, and that many parties on the island will push for early elections. Emphasizing the critical question of whether the anger toward the UBP will fade with Tatar, or will it persist, Baflı said, "Right now, the opposition within the UBP is not a friendly opposition."
Tufan Erhürman follows a clear policy of balance in relations with Türkiye.
Following Ersin Tatar's "two-state solution" idea, it became a matter of curiosity how Erhürman, who advocated the idea of a "federation based on two-zone, two-community, political equality", would establish relations with Ankara.
He neither adopts an anti-Turkey stance nor accepts Ankara's absolute determinacy. He argues that relations should be built on dialogue and consultation, saying, "I haven't quarreled with Türkiye, but there are things that need to be discussed."
Speaking to Medyascope, Nilgün Arısan-Eralp emphasized that Erhürman's vision for a solution to the Cyprus issue offers a basis that Türkiye can also support, and explained the policy advocated by Erhürman, dedicating it to the meeting titled "Where to Go in Cyprus?" held at TEPAV on January 13, 2024. Erhürman's solution model is as follows:
1. Political equality, one of the UN parameters, will be a must for the process.
2. Negotiations will not be open-ended; they will be conducted within the framework of a predetermined timetable.
3. Issues agreed upon during the Crans Montana process will not be renegotiated.
4. If the process fails – especially as a result of Greek Cypriot obstruction as in the past – there will be no return to the status quo and the isolation imposed on Turkish Cypriots will be lifted.
Emphasizing that no significant steps have been taken towards a solution to the Cyprus issue since the Crans Montana talks in 2017, Arısan-Eralp said, “This approach represents new hope for the Turkish Cypriot community, which has lived in uncertainty in the international arena for many years and feels its identity is being eroded.”
Referring to Erhürman's time as prime minister, Baflı emphasized that he is a name well-known to many politicians in Türkiye, saying, "He will move forward with healthy communication and diplomacy with Türkiye."
Referring to his failure to mention the possibility of "federation" during the election process, Baflı says, "He achieved this percentage of votes thanks to the language he used and his promise to embrace every single member of society. Even Rauf Denktaş's son, Serdar Denktaş, supported Erhürman throughout the election, emphasizing representation."
Retired Ambassador Selim Kuneralp , who evaluated the election results for Medyascope, interpreted Erhürman's election victory as a situation that suited the government and explained the reason as follows:
The government has been seeking to align itself with the European Union (EU) for some time and participate in the EU's SAFE program, which aims to strengthen the EU's defense industry by 2030. Strengthening relations with the EU wasn't feasible with Ersin Tatar's 'two-state solution' thesis. Erhürman's ideas regarding the Cyprus issue could strengthen the government's position on these matters.
No country other than Türkiye recognizes the TRNC.
Erhürman's victory could inject new momentum into the years-stalled peace process in Cyprus. In statements made before the election, Erhürman said that if elected, he would resume formal negotiations with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, the last of which took place in Crans Montana in 2017.
Mustafa Baflı also pointed out that Ersin Tatar was referred to as “one who avoids communication” and said, “Erhürman does not avoid dialogue with any party; on the contrary, he waits to immediately discuss the most talked-about issues of mixed marriages and property.”
Selim Kuneralp also emphasized that the Cyprus issue is unlikely to be resolved overnight, but said, " The most logical thing is to sit at the negotiating table after 8-9 years ." Recalling that the EU Presidency will pass to the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus as of January 1, 2026, Kuneralp said, "The Greek Cypriots hold the upper hand."
Kuneralp does not expect "concrete gains" in the near term, but he believes that some conveniences could be made in Türkiye-EU relations.
Nilgün Arısan-Eralp also stated that the Greek Cypriot side was the one that left the table without offering any justification in Crans Montana, saying, “Erhürman did not give up defending Türkiye’s Cyprus theses and refusing to negotiate Türkiye’s guarantorship, but emphasized that he would keep dialogue channels open without damaging the reputation of the Turkish Cypriot people and would prefer pragmatic solutions within the framework of UN parameters.”
Arısan-Eralp added:
“With this approach, the possibility of the Greek Cypriot leadership, which left the table in Crans Montana without offering any justification, revealing their true position and weakening the justifications for their isolation cannot be underestimated by eliminating the possibility of being seen as the only side that wants a solution.”
When many people in Türkiye think of the TRNC, it's Türkiye's "backyard" when it comes to gangs, fraud, and money laundering. When you visit the TRNC and talk to Turkish Cypriots and journalists, you'll understand that Northern Cyprus isn't just about casinos, nightclubs, and money laundering.
Mustafa Baflı, the Cyprus Post News Director, responded to my question, “What can Tufan Erhürman do about this?” as follows:
Following these news reports, suspicions have grown. People can no longer simply say, "Let's go to Cyprus and become students." Galleries, businesses... the money from unknown sources is endless. This is a government where capital can impose its will and make many things happen. With Erhürman's presidency, issues like requests and intra-party meddling between the government and the presidency are being shelved. In other words, there will be no "He's one of us, let's do his job." However, there's something to remember. It's not enough on its own!
Arısan-Eralp, noting that the most striking promise of Erhürman's campaign was "I promise seriousness," commented, "The election results have revealed the hope that Erhürman will fulfill the public's expectations of closing casinos and brothels, ending interference in lifestyles, and liquidating illegal groups."
